Simulation, not a forecast. Built from live Osmosis and Penumbra snapshots and measured trading activity. It does not claim to predict outcomes exactly. Defaults: operations $200 a month for 36 months; three pairs (TERP/THIOL, AKT/THIOL, AKT/TERP); staged deployment: 50% of the pairing AKT (about 97,333 AKT) with its TERP/THIOL deployed first, assumed 90 days after the vote (an assumption: the real date follows the IBC connection); the other 50% stays reserved and unused for the whole run (it enters only after the AEP-79 migration, whose date is not set).

What happens to the partner's tokens in the TERP/THIOL liquidity program?

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How much AKT do the positions hold?

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Is the partner better off than holding?

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How much of operations does arbitrage fund?

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How wide is the range of outcomes?

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TERP and THIOL, separately

TERP

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THIOL

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The TERP/THIOL pair and triangular arbitrage

Change the assumptions

Days Runs Trading activity × the measured rate of the reference pool Penumbra share of trades Buy/sell mix 0 = the measured mix Price swings × the partner token's real daily moves Arb reserve Float cap per trade Opening price above baseline Osmosis share of liquidity for pairs on both venues TERP/THIOL pair share of the program's TERP and of its THIOL TERP/THIOL trading × the reference pool's rate Deploy after days; the baselines keep rising while funds wait TERP/AKT venues THIOL/AKT venues TERP/THIOL venues Reference pool Opening baseline Opening-baseline placement check on Triangular arbitrage on Remove past price trend Seed

Where the numbers come from